IMFによる日銀がすべきこと。

なぜか消費税増税をIMFが勧告と大々的にマスコミが報じている。

しかし、同時に日銀にも注文を着けているのだが、全く報じられていない。

そこでここで紹介する。(http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2010/cr10211.pdf)

Additional easing. Building on the BoJ’s success in lowering short-term interest rates,
consideration could be given to extending the size and maturity of its funds supplying
operations to 6 months or beyond to reduce still elevated term-spreads. Such action,
in turn, might alleviate some appreciation pressures on the exchange rate. In addition,
the BoJ could consider purchasing a wider array of assets, such as low-rated corporate
bonds, to stimulate activity and help close the output gap.

つまり6ヶ月物以上の金利を下げる、為替にも効くし、例えば低格付の社債など様々資産を買うことが、景気刺激とGDPギャップを小さくする。

Supporting growth. As part of the BoJ’s proposal to support growth, consideration
could be given to improving access to credit for small and medium-sized enterprises
(SME), which are an important source of innovation and change but continue to face
financing constraints according to the Tankan survey. For example, the BoJ could
broaden the scope of acceptable collateral to include low-rated securitized SME
loans, which could encourage the development of a new market for lending to SMEs.

日銀は成長を支えるために中小企業の融資を改善させるために、中小企業向けの新しい貸付市場の発展をを促進させる。

・If the recovery falters and deflation worsens, the BoJ could consider a formal
quantitative easing framework to stimulate activity and anchor inflation expectations.
Such a move, however, would need to be balanced against the risks that large scale purchases
of JGBs without a credible fiscal strategy in place would undermine fiscal discipline and
raise sovereign risks.

もし更に景気が悪くなったり、デフレが悪化した場合は日銀は景気刺激とインフレ期待に重点を置いた大規模な量的緩和すべし。

・During this period of heightened uncertainty, clear communication is essential.
This is especially so in light of a number of administrative price changes (e.g. to high school
tuition and tobacco taxes) and the rebasing of the CPI in 2011 which could affect inflation
expectations. The BoJ has already clarified that the Policy Board does not “tolerate” year-on-
year inflation that is equal to or below zero percent. To further guide expectations, the BoJ
could consider communicating its intention to maintain easy monetary conditions until Policy
Board members’ one-year core inflation forecast exceeds 1 percent (the midpoint of the
understanding of price stability) provided that financial imbalances remain absent under the
“second perspective.

CPIはゼロ近辺ではなく、1%を超えるまで金融緩和を続けるというコミュニケーションが重要。